So in short: the Spanish Civil War cannot be stopped and will statically always happen. Over the course of 4337 days (the period 16 February 1936 - 1 January 1948), the chance for it not to fire is only 2,2587 ppb (parts per billion). The chance that the Spanish Civil War doesn't fire at all when the game ends in 1948 (assuming there are no active wars with more than one major power, that is) is incredibly small. First one was historical and the other three of the are non historical but in diffre. Over a period of a year (from 16 February 1936), there's an ~81,2783 % chance it will happen and it increases to ~99,9770 % and ~99,9999947 % for a period of five and ten years, respectively. I decided to make a video about new Spanish Civil War. If the game rolls the dice per hour (I suspect it does), one will find an hourly chance of 1 - 0.5 1/(151*24) = ~1.9125 ‰. If one solves for C, one find a daily chance of firing of 1 - C = 1 - 0.5 1/151 = ~4.5799 ‰.
If mean time to happen (MTTH) works as it does in all other Paradox games, it means that the chance of the event firing follows an exponential curve 1 - C t such that 1 - C 151 = 0.5. According to the events file, it fires some time after the 1936 Spanish general Election, which was held on 16 February, with a mean time to happen of 151 days.
As far as I know, the Spanish Civil War can't be stopped.
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